Dave Mohr (Chief Investment Strategist) & Izak Odendaal (Investment Strategist), Old Mutual Multi-Managers We’ll soon know who the next US president will be. Markets have already clearly signalled their preference: every uptick of support for Donald Trump in opinion polls has been met with a sell-off, and the S&P500 has fallen to its lowest level since July as the polls narrowed. South African equities have followed the US with the JSE All Share dipping to a level last seen after the Brexit vote. Mexico, whose economy is heavily dependent on continued free-trade with the US, has seen its currency especially hard hit. Unlike other commodity-producing emerging markets (like South Africa and Brazil), the peso didn’t appreciate against the US dollar this year based on fears of a Trump win. That outcome would be a shock, but it is important to recognise how little influence the US president actually has on economic matters as Congress makes most of the relevant decisions. It...

Dave Mohr & Izak Odendaal, Old Mutual Multi-Managers Global growth continues to disappoint. The Organisation for Economic Co¬operation and Development (OECD), a club of the world’s most advanced economies, recently revised their global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 down to 2.9% and 3.2% respectively. The OECD joins other multi-lateral organisations (such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation), central banks and private sector economists in cutting forecasts. The actual global growth rate has remained resilient at around 3% per year since 2011, close to its longer-term average. The disappointment stems from the failure to accelerate beyond that rate. Every year, forecasters expect the next year to see much faster growth. This has rarely happened, but once again, 2017 is expected to be better than 2016. There are several potential culprits. One is the ageing of populations across the developed world and another is the collapse in ...