Pound falls as Hard Brexit looms
Dave Mohr & Izak Odendaal, Old Mutual Multi-Managers US gross domestic product growth has slowed substantially over the past year to 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter. In its latest round of global forecasts, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its outlook for US growth for 2016 from 2.2% to 1.6% and 2017’s forecast from 2.5% to 2.2%. Consumer spending is the main engine of growth, supported by low inflation and decent job growth. Headline inflation is below 1% and core inflation, which excluded volatile food and energy prices, is below 2%. Declines in business investment, partly due to the low oil price, are largely to blame for the slower growth. Against this backdrop, it seems a bit strange to be considering interest rate increases. Yet several Fed officials, including previously dovish ones, have in the past few weeks argued the case for a rate increase later this year. They are somewhat supported by US economic data including the ISM indices that rebounded in Sep...